Cyber Monday: E-commerce's Endurance Test and the Beauty of Infrastructure with CEOs of GlossGenius, MassMutual
Danielle Cohen-Shohet of GlossGenius, Roger Crandall of MassMutual, Scott Guthrie of Microsoft
It’s crunch time for the global economy. So far, things are mostly going better than expected — mostly.
Adobe, which puts out holiday shopping predictions based on its wide-reaching analytics data, had expected moribund results. It projected that on Thanksgiving consumers would spend $5.1 billion, down 1% from last year; and that on Black Friday consumers would spend $9 billion, up just 1%. Instead spending was up 2.9% on Thanksgiving Day and 2.3% Black Friday. Momentum continued through the weekend, with spending up 4.4% on Saturday and Sunday.
Shopify, whose online platform provides tools that small businesses use to sell and market online, sounded an optimistic note. CEO Tobi Lutke tweeted a chart showing gross merchandise volume staying above last year’s levels in the first days of the holiday season’s prime shopping period:
What does it mean?
Here’s the rosy scenario: It means the consumer has more spending appetite than expected — possibly enough to keep the economy humming into 2023 and to avert a serious recession. That’s the case if things continue at this rate for four more weeks.
There’s a gloomier possibility, though: that consumers held back on spending heading into this week, and pulled forward their spend from next month. November was about flat until Thanksgiving, when this week’s heavy discounts powered things higher. Consumers might require sustained discounts — or deeper ones — to keep opening their wallets.
Meanwhile, as demand shows a strong few days, there’s trouble brewing in the supply chain. Protests in China over COVID lockdowns are injecting uncertainty into the source of many goods. And the looming possibility of a rail worker strike in the U.S. has companies scrambling for backup options, which will be more expensive — just as consumers are demanding deep discounts, and as truck drivers remain hard to come by.
With the continued economic turbulence as a backdrop, a couple of conversations to share this week:
The first is a 1:1 with GlossGenius founder and CEO Danielle Cohen-Shohet. GlossGenius, which offers back-office software to salons and barber shops, is important because it’s bringing the power of enterprise tech to small businesses that have tended to rely on more outdated tools. I believe the movement toward the digital infrastructure of small business software will continue in an economic slowdown, and entrepreneurs like Cohen-Shohet can play a vital role in creating a bridge to the next phase of growth.
The second is a 1:1 with MassMutual CEO Roger Crandall, whose view of the economy comes from a wide lens. MassMutual is an insurance giant with $11 billion in annual revenue and more than $300 billion in assets under management. We talked about the state of the economy, mentorship, and risk.
And finally, I’ve got a strong lineup of guests coming to CNBC TechCheck over the next few days for Cloud Week. They include Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky on Tuesday, Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi and ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott on Wednesday, Microsoft EVP Cloud and A.I. Scott Guthrie on Thursday, and more.
MassMutual CEO Roger Crandall on Mentors and Collaboration: CNBC Working Lunch
The Full Fortt Knox 1:1
GlossGenius CEO Danielle Cohen-Shohet on Building a Business that Supports Beauty Entrepreneurs
